State an estimate as a probability distribution. For this meme: “I estimate an 80% probability of completing in less than 195 minutes and a 20% probability of completing in less than 175 minutes, but the absolute minimum is 170 minutes. I’ll provide an updated estimate in an hour or so. Do you want me to EMail you the assumptions and risk register?”
“Uhhhh … no.” [thinks: WTF did she just say?] “Uh, can you give me that as a single number?”
[stares for a four-count] “The mode was 182 minutes, at 6.3%. Which means there is a 93.7% probability that it won’t take 182 minutes.”
New project management articles published on the web during the week of May 29 – June 4. And this week’s video: Daniel Kahneman explains how a premortem can help a team overcome thinking bias when making critical decisions.
Must read (or Hear)!
Rani Molla links us to Mary Meeker’s 2017 internet trends report, from the slide deck to a video of her delivery. Just 34 minutes, safe for work, and overwhelming to consider all in one sitting.
Jonathan Soble reports on Japan’s shrinking and aging population and what it will require to sustain economic growth. We should expect every industrialized nation to face this demographic problem (and business opportunity) by 2040.
Adam Shostack reflects on the external and internal reasons that organizations don’t maintain or update their software and notes a few choices for managing them.
John Goodpasture presents an interesting bar chart displaying relative priority of key project attributes (he calls them influencers and discriminators) from the client’s perspective.
Elizabeth Harrin interviews Emma Seaton-Smith, who has been nominated for the 2017 Rising Stars award in technology sponsored by the Times of London.
Cornelius Fichtner interviews Jordan Kyriakidis, who says that we have the technology to improve the quality of our project requirements. Just 33 minutes, safe for work.
Elise Stevens interviews change leader Cassie Kowaltzke on how to exercise strong stakeholder engagement during business transformation. Just over 14 minutes, safe for work.
Alexis Devinin tutors us on the preparation of first-cost estimates as used in engineering projects.
Glen Alleman deconstructs the #NoEstimates manifesto presented at a recent Agile conference in Nashville, TN.
Stefan Wolpers curates his weekly round-up of all things Agile, from the necessity of experimentation to the State of Agile report, to why brainstorming sucks as an ideation tool.
Mike Cohn lists eight behavior recommendations that might help you become the Scum Master your team needs.
Johanna Rothman continues her series on defining “scaling” Agile, with a look at creating Agile product development capabilities.
New project management articles published on the web during the week of September 12 – 18. And this week’s video: applying insights and techniques derived from recent studies on multi-tasking and ego depletion to improve your productivity. Less than four minutes, safe for work. Tip of the hat to Harry Hall, who shared this.
Henny Portman advocates for positioning Agile methods as changes to “business as usual,” rather than as changes to the way projects are run.
Robin Goldsmith describes the process of determining ROI by discovering the requirements that drive business value and quantifying the intangibles.
Dmitriy Nizhebetskiy lists six practical risk identification techniques that won’t go over the heads of your project team.